A Clash of Narratives: National Identity and Violent Conflict in Ethiopia

"Understanding the civic value of media is a key feature of our research."

This study seeks to identify and analyse features and patterns of Ethiopia's media ecosystem by using a research approach developed by Global Voices called the Civic Media Observatory (CMO). This method is based on qualitative analysis that is designed to explore the civic impact of media items, offering insight into the effect of "narrative frames" on audiences' understanding of information and identifying priority public interest themes.

Global Voices conducted this research as a partner of Protecting Independent Media for Effective Development (PRIMED), a consortium of media development organisations led by BBC Media Action that works to support public interest media in Ethiopia, Bangladesh, and Sierra Leone. In this context, the study seeks to apply a "network vision" approach in Ethiopia as part of planned media mapping activities under the formative research stage of the programme's co-creation process and baseline research.

As explained in the report, the CMO research approach is designed to offer a range of media development recommendations to inform programme design, on the following topics:

• Where and how content of civic value is actually produced and shared - whether it comes from mass media, social media, the open internet, or elsewhere.
• How information and journalism produced outside of organisations, and especially in social media and on the open internet, may affect public understanding of issues.

The approach is intended to supplement traditional indicators of civic value employed by the media development sector, including: legal, regulatory, and ownership indicators of the civic value of media, which usually focus on the viability and influence of community media, public media, and independent commercial media; public opinion polling, which explores the media preference of citizens, availability of media sources and types, and other opinions about the value of media; and, more recently, dis/misinformation research, which tends to focus on the facticity of individual media items, rather than considering the narrative contexts in which those items are created and shared. (The methodology is described in detail in the report; also see Related Summaries, below).

The research took place in two research phases: the first in the first half of 2020, and the second from the end of 2020 through March 2021. The data set contains 336 items drawn from 91 media sources, including editorial media, social media, other online media, and offline media. Click here to access the data set.

The researchers identified 47 themes (events, trends, or phenomena) and 59 narrative frames (how people and media discuss themes) during this investigation. Themes included, for example, "National and ethnic identity", "Tigray conflict and TPLF [Tigrayan People's Liberation Front]", "political system", and "human rights". Narrative frames included, for example, "Anti-Prosperity Party", "The Ethiopian government is vicious" and "Ethnic nationalism is a threat".

Themes surrounding "National and ethnic identity" and the "Tigray conflict and TPLF" were a key focus of the analysis. For example, the June 29 2020 assassination of Oromo singer and activist Hachalu Hundessa dominated Ethiopian news and conversation, resulting in a two-week internet shutdown. Similarly, modes of opposition to the Tigray conflict can be seen in narratives that oppose the ruling Prosperity Party and discuss ethnic nationalism as a threat to the Ethiopian state.

To unpack a media item's civic impact or potential benefit or harm to civic discourse, CMO researchers use a civic impact score to determine whether an item may be true or false, popular or unpopular, useful or harmful. As explained in the report, "The civic impact score is a normative evaluation to categorize media items by potential benefit or harm to civic discourse, in accordance with international human rights norms."

For example, of the media items asserting "Anti-Prosperity Party" narratives, 45% were assigned a negative civic impact score, presenting biased, mis/disinforming, and/or hateful or harmful speech; 8% contained no substantive information; and 47% were assigned a positive civic impact score. Among items belonging to the narrative frame grouping "The Ethiopian government is vicious", 51% were assigned a negative civic impact score, 10% of material contained no substantive information, and 39% were assigned a positive civic impact score. CMO researchers also give descriptive and contextual explanations of media items to allow for a fuller understanding of the effect that narrative framing has on how ideas are presented and discussed in Ethiopia's media ecosystem.

Overall, as explained in the executive summary, the study:

• "Highlights the interconnectedness of media forms, as media outlets deploy multiple channels to disseminate their work, and as new outlets take shape in online spaces.
• Tracks stories and narratives as they move across different mediums and outlets, allowing for rich comparison of data.
• Demonstrates how narratives shift in response to events of significance, and provides a method to compare responses across information providers.
• Points to the effects of key narratives, and suggests interesting trends and implications that are a starting point for further research.
• Captures the fragility and dependence of the Ethiopian media infrastructure upon governmental authority, as internet and communications shutdowns and mass media closures affect information access to varied effect. While shutdowns may slow the movement of rumor, hate speech and misinformation, and remove potential mechanisms for the organization of communal protest and violence, the same channels may also be used to positively inform and share accurate information, provide access to necessary - and sometimes life-saving - knowledge about access to resources, and provide space for dialogue.
• Demonstrates the speed by which narratives promoted by government-aligned media can shift from relatively balanced to propagandistic perspectives that include denial of potential war crimes, and vilification of human rights reporting and documentation.
• Exposes the continuing ethnic, political and linguistic divides underneath the relative calm of the prior few years.
• Highlights the importance of diaspora media in influencing narratives, and both providing Ethiopians with accurate information and as a source of unaccountable mis/disinformation."

The report includes an analysis of media source data from four PRIMED media partners in Ethiopia: Addis Maleda, ARTS TV, Asham TV, and Addis Zeybe. The research found that, "compared to other media sources with multiple media items analysed, overall, all PRIMED partners had a high percentage of items receiving a positive civic score, with ARTS TV, and Asham TV, all having 100% positive civic scoring items (one third of media sources with 100% positive civic impact items were PRIMED partners)." The report also offers further reflection on the media items produced by these PRIMED partners.